Futurists have a decidedly mixed reputation and a patchy track record at successful prediction. Many 1950s futurists predicted commonplace space tourism by 2000, but ignored the possibilities of ubiquitous, cheap computers. On the other hand, many forecasts have portrayed the future with some degree of accuracy. Sample predicted futures range from predicted ecological catastrophes, through a utopian future where the poorest human being lives in what present-day observers would regard as wealth and comfort, through the transformation of humanity into a posthuman life-form, to the destruction of all life on Earth in, say, a nanotechnological disaster. For reasons of convenience, futurists have often extrapolated present technical and societal trends and assumed they will develop at the same rate into the future; but technical progress and social upheavals, in reality, take place in fits and starts and in different areas at different rates.
In 2018, the United States General Accountability Office (GAO) created the Center for Strategic Foresight to enhance its ability to "serve as the agency's principal hub for identifying, monitoring, and analyzing emerging issues facing policymakers." The center is composed of non-resident Fellows who are considered leading experts in foresight, planning and future thinking. In September 2019 they hosted a conference on space policy and "deep fake" synthetic media to manipulate online and real-world interactions.
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